Scenario Library

Real Events, Re-Examined

Retrospective briefs on documented events — what happened, which cross-domain signals existed beforehand, and why siloed analysis missed the picture.

This brief is a retrospective, illustrative analysis of publicly documented events. WeaveCast was not in operation during these events, and no customer outcome or endorsement is implied. Figures are drawn from public reporting and official post-event reviews.

Energy & UtilitiesFebruary 13–17, 2021

Winter Storm Uri: The Grid Failure the Signals Foretold

In February 2021, a polar outbreak pushed the Texas grid within minutes of total collapse. More than 4.5 million customers lost power, wholesale prices sat at the $9,000/MWh cap for days, and hundreds of people died. The atmospheric warning signs appeared weeks earlier — but the failure lived in the seams between weather, gas logistics, and electricity markets.

AtmosphericEnergyLogisticsEconomicBehavioral

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Supply Chain & LogisticsMarch 23–29, 2021

The Ever Given: Six Days That Exposed a Brittle System

A single ultra-large container ship grounded in a sandstorm and blocked roughly 12% of global trade for six days. Hundreds of vessels queued, billions of dollars of goods stalled per day, and the congestion echoed through ports and supply chains for months. The blockage was an accident — the fragility it revealed was measurable in advance.

AtmosphericLogisticsEconomicGeopolitical

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Agriculture & CommoditiesMay–August 2012

The 2012 Drought: When the Corn Market Trusted the Trend Line

In spring 2012, the USDA projected a record corn crop on record planted acres. By August, the worst U.S. drought in decades had cut yields by roughly a quarter and corn futures hit all-time highs above $8 per bushel. The repricing happened in weeks — but the soil moisture, weather pattern, and crop condition data had been deteriorating in plain sight.

AtmosphericAgriculturalEconomic

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Government & Emergency ManagementSeptember 28, 2022

Hurricane Ian: A Forecast Problem That Was Really a Behavior Problem

Hurricane Ian made landfall as a high-end Category 4 and became the costliest storm in Florida history, with most deaths caused by storm surge in areas where evacuation began late. The hardest problem wasn’t the meteorology — it was the interaction between an uncertain track, public attention anchored on the wrong city, and evacuation behavior shaped by prior near-misses.

AtmosphericBehavioralEnergyLogistics

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Why Retrospectives?

Every brief follows the same discipline — and it's the same discipline WeaveCast is built to operationalize.

The Signals Were Public

Each event is reconstructed only from data that was publicly available before the headline — forecasts, filings, ratings, and standing research.

The Failure Was the Seam

In every case, individual domains saw their piece. The risk lived in the interaction between domains, where no single team was looking.

Honest by Design

These are analyses of the past, clearly labeled — not customer claims. When real customer stories exist, they will be published separately.

See This Analysis Run Live

WeaveCast is built to surface these cross-domain interactions as they form — not in retrospect. Join the early access list to see it on your problems.

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